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2012 Idaho Republican presidential caucuses

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2012 Idaho Republican presidential caucuses

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32 delegates to the
2012 Republican National Convention
 
Candidate Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Ron Paul
Home state Massachusetts Pennsylvania Texas
Delegate count 32 0 0
Popular vote 27,514 8,115 8,086
Percentage 61.6% 18.2% 18.1%

The Republican caucuses took place on Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012.[1][2] An advisory primary with no binding effect on delegates, scheduled to be held on Tuesday May 15, 2012, was cancelled by the Idaho Republican Party.[3] Five candidates were on the ballot. In order of filing they are Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Buddy Roemer. Although Roemer had withdrawn from the Republican race before the Idaho caucus, he still appeared on the ballot.[4]

Mitt Romney won 61% of the vote, thanks to a large majority of support (80-90% in most counties) in majority Mormon southeastern Idaho, rendering it a winner-take-all contest. Santorum and Paul split the Panhandle, winning five counties each, but came away empty in the delegate count.

Procedure

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Idaho has 32 delegates to the Republican national convention, of which 3 are RNC and 29 are AL.[clarification needed] The 3 RNC delegates pledged to go with the results of the Boise Straw Poll.[citation needed] The delegates will be determined by the caucuses results, based on a two-step approach. First, the delegates are primarily awarded winner-take-all by county after a series of votes in which candidates are successively removed from the ballot. Then, if a candidate receives half or more of the county delegates, he will receive all the 32 delegates; if not, the delegates will be split proportionately according to the number of county delegates.[5]

Polling

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Straw polls

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Despite a complete lack of formal polling in the state,[5] there were a total of five straw polls conducted in Idaho, three of which were online. Ron Paul won three of these,[6][7][8] while Mitt Romney won two.[9]

January 2–4 online poll

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This was the first ever Idaho straw poll.[10] It was conducted entirely online by Kaz Wittig KStar Enterprises. Ron Paul won with over 70% of the vote.[6]

Finish Candidate Percentage
1 Ron Paul 73.53%
2 Rick Santorum 8.09%
3 Newt Gingrich 7.35%
4 Mitt Romney 5.15%
5 Barack Obama 3.68%
6 Gary Johnson 1.47%
7 Rick Perry 0.74%
8 Jon Huntsman 0.00%
9 Michele Bachmann 0.00%
Total 100%

January 6 Boise poll

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This poll used paper ballots and was conducted in Boise. Ron Paul won this poll. Rick Perry's campaign, although still active in the race at this time, did not participate.[7]

Finish Candidate Percentage Votes
1 Ron Paul 43% 173
2 Mitt Romney 34% 135
3 Newt Gingrich 12% 47
4 Rick Santorum 10% 40
5 Jon Huntsman 1% 4
Total 100% 399

February 2–4 online poll

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This online straw poll was also produced by Kaz Wittig KStar Enterprises. Mitt Romney won the poll by a small margin.[9]

Finish Candidate Percentage
1 Mitt Romney 45.39%
2 Ron Paul 42.70%
3 Rick Santorum 4.49%
4 Newt Gingrich 3.82%
5 Barack Obama 3.15%
6 Other 0.45%
Total 100%

March 1–3 online poll

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This poll was also produced by Kaz Wittig KStar Enterprises. Ron Paul won by a double-digit margin.[8]

Finish Candidate Percentage Votes
1 Ron Paul 51.37% 525
2 Mitt Romney 35.03% 358
3 Gary Johnson 3.91% 40
4 Rick Santorum 3.23% 33
5 Virgil Goode 2.84% 29
6 Buddy Roemer 1.96% 20
7 Newt Gingrich 0.98% 10
8 Barack Obama 0.49% 5
9 Other 0.2% 2
Total 100% 1022

Results

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Results of the 2012 Idaho Republican presidential caucuses[11][12]
Finish Candidate Percentage Votes Estimated National Delegates
1 Mitt Romney 61.6% 27,514 32
2 Rick Santorum 18.2% 8,115 0
3 Ron Paul 18.1% 8,086 0
4 Newt Gingrich 2.1% 940 0
5 Buddy Roemer 0.0% 17 0
Total 100% 32

County totals

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County Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Total Winner
Ada 307 1766 4233 1866 8172 Romney
Adams 0 85 132 0 217 Romney
Bannock 24 254 1614 146 2038 Romney
Bear Lake 2 15 308 19 344 Romney
Benewah 24 90 26 145 265 Santorum
Bingham 27 215 2172 150 2564 Romney
Blaine 47 79 230 23 379 Romney
Boise 0 128 163 0 291 Romney
Bonner 0 555 0 487 1042 Paul
Bonneville 65 481 3044 235 3825 Romney
Boundary 0 193 64 101 358 Paul
Butte 10 25 153 23 211 Romney
Camas 0 40 38 0 78 Paul
Canyon 0 617 2056 1296 3969 Romney
Caribou 7 22 336 26 391 Romney
Cassia 28 143 1279 144 1594 Romney
Clark 2 8 88 17 115 Romney
Clearwater 0 85 0 151 236 Santorum
Custer 19 48 98 24 189 Romney
Elmore 0 158 281 0 439 Romney
Franklin 4 105 856 29 994 Romney
Fremont 12 76 726 38 852 Romney
Gem 0 150 379 143 672 Romney
Gooding 47 84 299 86 516 Romney
Idaho 0 284 0 191 475 Paul
Jefferson 11 212 1642 114 1979 Romney
Jerome 28 74 331 101 534 Romney
Kootenai 0 496 0 674 1170 Santorum
Latah 78 509 197 188 972 Paul
Lemhi 44 60 217 64 385 Romney
Lewis 0 0 25 44 69 Santorum
Lincoln 14 11 147 49 221 Romney
Madison 7 260 2510 50 2827 Romney
Minidoka 22 80 653 92 847 Romney
Nez Perce 0 127 124 0 251 Paul
Oneida 3 39 241 18 301 Romney
Owyhee 0 0 177 263 440 Santorum
Payette 0 0 428 302 730 Romney
Power 9 13 287 38 347 Romney
Shoshone 0 0 63 74 137 Santorum
Teton 13 44 295 26 378 Romney
Twin Falls 83 332 1228 409 2052 Romney
Valley 0 123 152 0 275 Romney
Washington 0 0 222 269 491 Santorum

Notes

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  • That these totals reflect the final caucus ballots in each county; where only two candidates have votes totaled, this was likely from other candidates being eliminated in previous rounds of voting. Where all candidates have at least one vote, only one ballot was necessary, since the winning candidate had a majority of votes in that county.
  • Vote totals for Buddy Roemer, who had formally withdrawn from the Republican race before the caucus, are not provided.

References

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  1. ^ "Idaho Republican Delegation 2012".
  2. ^ "Election and voting information" (PDF).
  3. ^ "Idaho Republican Presidential Nominating Process". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  4. ^ "Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates". 27 May 2018.
  5. ^ a b Nate Silver (March 4, 2012). "Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  6. ^ a b "Presidential Race Graph". Archived from the original on 2012-03-06. Retrieved 2012-02-28.
  7. ^ a b http://www.kivitv.com/news/local/136861888.html [permanent dead link]
  8. ^ a b "Presidential Race Graph". Archived from the original on 2012-03-06. Retrieved 2012-03-04.
  9. ^ a b "Presidential Race Graph". Archived from the original on 2012-03-06. Retrieved 2012-03-02.
  10. ^ Bodnar, Marissa. "Idaho GOP Gears Up For 2012 Straw Poll, Caucus". Local News 8. NPG of Idaho, Inc. Archived from the original on 18 September 2016. Retrieved 14 July 2016.
  11. ^ "Caucus Results | Idaho GOPIdaho GOP". Archived from the original on 2012-07-20. Retrieved 2012-07-19.
  12. ^ "Idaho County Map". CNN.